数据中心狂热：AI 行业的经济账与政治反噬

(You can read his full post, with some graphs and a link to a longer report, here.)

Part I: costs and how much revenue you would need to justify those costs. Estimate #1 comes from Peter Berezin, Chief Economist at BCA Research.

Part II: public opinion, refracted through politics. In keeping with my post from Wednesday on Republicans panicking, Republicans are abandoning data centers like rats abandoning sinking ships.

Until now, I always assumed the game plan was to get a bailout if and when the economics fall apart, but at this point the big tech companies might be more screwed than I thought, given how toxic data centers have become.

Either way, we are talking about current revenues in the tens of billions (or low hundreds of billions if you are really optimistic), against Capex in the trillions. You don’t have to be Einstein to see the math ain’t mathing.

Here are four new examples from roughly the last 24 hours, collected by the pollster Adam Carlson:

Estimate #2, more conservative but still quite high, comes from Calum Williams (who works for The Economist) here:

Through a mixture of greed, stupidity, and arrogance, the heroes of 2023 have become the villains of 2026.

Perhaps no industry in history has spoiled its own prospects faster than the AI industry.

Nobody wants this, and the economics make no sense.